Climate Change and Spotted Owls

In September of 2004, Dr. Glenn Sutherland attended a workshop on climate change models and ecological impacts presented to the Spotted Owl (SPOW) modeling group. Dr. Sutherland's précis ( 132 Kb)of this workshop is now available. Cortex is developing a regional strategic framework to link forest management models with SPOW habitat models and spatially explicit SPOW population models.

Cumulative Impacts Assessment/ Management Presentation to BC Treaty Negotiation Office
 
In early February 2005,  Cortex presented a half-day workshop on cumulative impacts assessment (CIA) and cumulative impacts management (CIM) to the Treaty 8 Negotiation Team, including representatives from the Oil and Gas Commission and the B.C. ministries of Sustainable Resource Management; Water, Land and Air Protection; and Forests. The purpose of the presentation was to clarify terminology and introduce basic concepts of CIA, discuss how CIA is being used in British Columbia's resource development and assessment processes, overview various approaches to CIA, and discuss a framework for CIM.

Presentation ( 448 Kb)
 
For more information, contact Melissa Hadley, Cortex Consultants Inc., at 250.360.1492 extension 224.

Coast Information Team Wraps Up

The Coast Information Team (CIT) brought together dozens of scientists and researchers to develop independent information and analyses in support of ecosystem-based management (EBM) for the north and central coastal regions of British Columbia and Haida Gwaii/Queen Charlotte Islands. This information was provided to the subregional Land and Resource Management Planning (LRMP) tables and First Nations Land Use Planning (LUP) tables to assist them in developing practical recommendations to resolve land-use and natural resource management issues.

Cortex Consultants Inc. delivered secretariat services to the CIT for the last two years of its mandate, which concluded on March 31, 2004. We developed and managed CIT project workplans; managed CIT accounts; developed and maintained a CIT Website; developed a timber Economic Gains Spatial Analysis for the CIT region; and worked with the CIT management committee to fulfil the CIT mandate. Our final task involves assembling, based on the CIT experience, recommendations that may be useful to other multi-stakeholder processes in planning and implementing similar programs.

The many CIT products available on the CIT Website offer valuable information to guide the implementation of EBM in the CIT analysis area: spatial studies of economic, cultural, and ecological values; a detailed assessment of the wellbeing of people and ecosystems in the CIT region; and specifics on the ecology and planning needs underlying EBM. All CIT reports and maps are available as downloadable PDFs.

For more information, contact Melissa Hadley, Cortex Consultants Inc., at 250.360.1492 extension 224.

Cortex is currently building on the CIT Timber Economic Gains Spatial Analysis and work done for the Central Coast LRMP table to provide the Haida Gwaii/QCI Land Use Planning Forum with an integrated analysis of the timber and ecological values on the Islands. For more information on this project, see adjacent article.

Forest Enterprise Modeling: A New Tool for Planning Community Economic Development

Cortex Consultants Inc. has developed a new approach to land-base modeling. Forest enterprise modeling is designed to provide information to First Nations about the economics of forestry development in their traditional territories. This modeling describes the current state of the forest economy in a given area, and then analyzes the financial implications of alternative forest development scenarios using full cost accounting.

Building the model

Forest enterprise modeling can be done with a variety of computer models, from the simple to the complex. The choice depends on the purpose of the analysis and the available information, time, and budget. The model is constructed to integrate all available land-base information, such as forest inventory data, harvest volume data, and yield tables predicting the growth rate of timber. It also incorporates information about the economics of forest harvesting, manufacturing, and trade, which is used to predict levels of employment and profit from different approaches to forest management.

Considering scenarios

Cortex works closely with its client to determine the different forest management scenarios to be explored. These often include a range of scenarios such as commercial timber production, preservation, and traditional use.

Once scenarios have been outlined, Cortex uses the model to determine the economic implications (revenue and employment) of different harvesting approaches. We use a full cost accounting approach to consider trade-offs between different economic and environmental values for different forest management scenarios. We take a qualitative approach to evaluating trade-offs for those values for which data are not available.

Forest Enterprise modeling for the HTG

For the Hul’qumi’num Treaty Group’s (HTG) Statement of Intent area, we developed a spreadsheet-based forest enterprise model that used HTG GIS data and publicly available economic data to estimate volumes and values of timber harvested in recent years, and potential non-timber forest product values. The model allowed us to illustrate the probable economic and employment implications of different harvesting options in forest development scenarios. With this information HTG will be in a strong position to engage in research and plan land uses that meet diverse community goals over short- and long-term time frames.

How can First Nations benefit from forest enterprise modeling?

Many First Nations are receiving offers to enter into Forest and Range Agreements (FRAs) with the provincial government. Components of these agreements may include revenue sharing from forestry operations in traditional territories, provisions regarding access to tenure (type, term, and volume), and consultation and accommodation processes. A First Nation can use forest enterprise modeling to understand how an FRA “fits” in the Nation’s larger picture of community development—how to balance the economic benefits of forest development with community goals to maintain forests for spiritual uses, wildlife, and other opportunities. Forest enterprise modeling is one of many tools that First Nations may find useful in exploring various resource development opportunities for their traditional territories.

Next steps

Cortex Consultants Inc. is further developing the full-cost accounting element of forest enterprise modeling to provide more quantitative information to First Nations on the trade-offs between different forest values. We plan to build ecological modeling into future forest enterprise models.

For more information, contact Doug Williams, Cortex Consultants Inc., at 250.360.1492 extension 226.

Now Ready…Forest Land Use Planning Workshop Prioritizes Cultural Values

Aboriginal people throughout Canada are engaging in planning to guide and govern the use of forests and other resources in their traditional territories. Cortex Consultants is working with First Nations forestry professionals and educational institutions to develop a workshop in timber supply and forest ecosystem analysis that will offer First Nations tools to more effectively participate in provincial timber supply review processes and plan for sustainable forest management in their territories.

After receiving input from advisors, we are now finalizing content for the two-day workshop. Our intent is to offer a conceptual workshop that is highly interactive, with discussion sessions between presentations of workshop materials. We start from the premise that First Nation's cultural values must be identified at the outset and accommodated in forest planning. Participants will identify values in their territory, we will explain some key forest planning and ecological concepts, and together we will apply the cultural and other values and concepts to a generic landbase using computer models. The ideas and tools can be used in developing community land use plans or in consultations to provide input for provincial processes.

Participants could include community councilors, land and resource technicians, political leaders, and other parties that hosting organizations choose to invite. Taking the course will help leaders and technicians understand provincial land and resource planning processes and the assumptions that go into models that support these processes. This understanding will help participants to think critically and communicate effectively with licensees and ministry staff about managing lands and resources in the context of their community goals.

We are now accepting bookings for regional delivery of the workshop with interested Nations, treaty councils, and other alliances organized by First Nations. We recommend a maximum of 20 attendees to enable effective participation.

First Nations Forest Planning Workshop ( 317 Kb) - you may require Adobe Reader 7.0 or higher (www.adobe.com) to view this file

Native Journal October 2006 article  ( 563 Kb)

For more information, contact Doug Williams, Cortex Consultants Inc., at 250.360.1492 extension 226.

http://www.cortex.ca © Cortex Consultants Inc., 2008
Last modified October 2008

Predictive Ecosystem Mapping User's Guide and Workshop

Cortex Consultants Inc., in association with JMJ Holdings Inc., developed a User's Guide and Workshop on predictive ecosystem mapping (PEM) and its applications in British Columbia.

The User's Guide presents an overview of PEM -- what it is, how it works, and how it is applied in resource management. The guide is intended to stand alone, as well as provide background reading material for the complementary workshop. It is not meant to be a technical reference for designing or carrying out a PEM inventory.

The intended audiences for the PEM User's Guide are people who are considering or planning to use an existing or planned PEM inventory as the basis for a particular application such as wildlife habitat interpretations or estimates of site productivity, including resource management planners, timber supply analysts, systems ecologists, and habitat specialists.

The User's Guide and associated workshop were produced for Tolko Industries Ltd., Williams Lake Woodlands, with funding from the Land-Base Investment Program (LBIP) of the provincial Forest Investment Account (FIA).

The pilot 1-day workshop was delivered on March 17, 2005 in Williams Lake. For more information, contact Melissa Hadley, Cortex Consultants Inc., at 250.360.1492 extension 224.

PEM User's Guide, March 2005 ( 2.6 Mb)
PEM Workshop Handouts, March 2005 ( 2.7 Mb)

A New Approach to Timber Supply Modeling for Land-use Planning

Cortex Consultants Inc., in cooperation with Gowlland Technologies Ltd. - has developed a set of models to simulate timber harvesting and its impacts on environmental indicators for the Haida Gwaii/Queen Charlotte Islands Land Use Planning Forum (HGLUPF). This large-scale, unique modeling project combines three types of models: a Woodstock/Stanley timber supply model, a SELES (Spatially Explicit Landscape Simulator) spatial timber harvesting model, and a SELES spatial environmental indicators model.

This spatial layer shows the timber harvesting landbase. Light green is the spatial contributing landbase, dark green is excluded, gray is inoperable

Haida Gwaii Target Harvest Model (Woodstock)

The Haida Gwaii Target Harvest Model uses Woodstock—a linear programming-based forest estate model—to predict optimum harvest flows. Woodstock generates an “optimum” schedule for timber harvesting, given certain management assumptions, objectives, and forest cover constraints. Although the inputs to Woodstock and some of its functionality are spatial, the outputs are not—they do not place cutblocks or roads on the landscape. This means that the optimized harvest solution does not account for spatial constraints such as the construction of road networks needed to meet a harvest schedule, or report on spatial impacts of harvesting to habitat for species at risk.

Haida Gwaii Landscape Model (SELES)

Cortex has linked the Haida Gwaii Target Harvest Model with SELES, a spatially explicit landscape simulation model. SELES implements the optimum harvest schedule by scheduling and building roads and locating and placing harvest blocks according to spatial constraints not represented in the Woodstock model. The result is an optimized harvest schedule that is realistically modeled across the landbase, given real-world spatial constraints like road networks, riparian reserves, and variable retention.

The outputs of the Haida Gwaii Landscape Model include harvest flow indicators, and maps and time series of analysis units (types of forest based on species and productivity), stand age, and road networks. These outputs are the basic information needed to predict impacts of timber harvesting on environmental indicators.

Environmental Indicators Model (SELES)

The HGLUPF is tasked with developing a comprehensive, balanced, ecosystem-based land and resource management plan that guides management of the landbase for multiple values. Ecological integrity is one of the Forum's central concerns. The Environmental Indicators Model uses the outputs of the Haida Gwaii Landscape Model to provide information on the impacts of the proposed harvest schedule(s) on several indicators of ecological integrity. These include summaries of habitat for species at risk (Marbled Murrelet and Northern Goshawk), habitat for species of special concern (black bear and western redcedar), hydroriparian impacts, windthrow risk, old-growth representation, and road impacts.

Among the innovations of the Environmental Indicators Model is its ability to estimate the number of stream crossings required to harvest a given volume of wood, which in turn supplies information on impacts to hydroriparian values. Also, the model can estimate the wood volume transported on roads, which can be translated into measures of traffic volume, a useful indicator of impact to species such as black bear.

Scenarios

The set of models developed for the HGLUPF is being applied in forecasting and back-casting. Three scenarios are being forecast: (1) a base case built on the aspatial Timber Supply Review (TSR) approach; (2) a spatial version of the TSR approach; and (3) a scenario that extends the current approaches to forest management on the Haida Gwaii/QCI into the future. A single scenario is being back-cast, based on information about harvesting practices dating as far back as the 1800s. The goal of the back-cast scenario is to show how environmental indicators have already changed over time.

Summary

The suite of models that Cortex Consultants Inc. has developed for the Haida Gwaii/QCI Land Use Planning Forum provides a new way to integrate spatialization and optimization of timber harvesting schedules. Previously, trial-and-error or heuristic search algorithms were required to find parameters for timber harvesting that would maximize harvest flow over time. In the case of the Haida Gwaii models, however, the optimal harvesting solution is an input to the spatial harvesting model, which then implements the optimal solution according to spatial constraints. In combination with the detailed analysis of environmental indicators provided in the Environmental Indicators Model, this approach has enormous potential for modeling the economic and environmental impacts of different forest management scenarios across British Columbia.

For more information, contact Doug Williams, Cortex Consultants Inc., at 250.360.1492 extension 226.

Forest Trends and ProForest Forest Certification Assessment and Gap Analysis

Based on a recommendation from the International Finance Corporation, Dr. Andrew F. Howard was invited to participate on an expert panel to advise Forest Trends and ProForest on the development of a tool which companies, financial institutions, and other stakeholders can use to develop and implement their own internal policies for incorporating forest certification into due diligence exercises. The project involves benchmarking some 15 different forest certification systems from around the world against a standardized set of principles and criteria. Bank of America, Citigroup Inc., JP Morgan Chase, and TD Bank Financial Group are funding this project.

Dr. Howard was involved in a series of similar projects for the International Finance Corporation, evaluating the Brazilian and Chilean national forest certification systems, and the application of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) system to a project in Uruguay. The first meeting of the expert panel was held in Washington, DC in early July of 2007.

Forest Trends and ProForest Forest Certification Assessment and Gap Analysis Concept Document ( 64 Kb)

For more information, contact Andrew Howard, Cortex Consultants Inc., at 250.360.1492 extension 222.